Benny Avni
Red lines aren’t what they used to be.
President Obama warned beleaguered President Bashar al-Assad on Monday against using Syria’s chemical weapons. Problem is, Assad’s apparently already violated an earlier Obama ultimatum.
Meanwhile, China threatened last week to prevent some vessels from traveling in one of the world’s busiest commercial shipping lanes — a move that risks crossing another oft-stated American red line.
Start with Syria. Obama, who’s reluctant to get involved in the civil war there, nevertheless said in August that if Assad’s chemical arms are “moving around or being utilized” — well, that “would be a red line for us.”
Fast forward to Monday: “The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable,” Obama said.
Why the shift from “move” arms to “use” them? Well, Assad apparently already moved them. According to numerous credible reports, this week someone started to move the weapons around and prep them for use.
Obama, who’s mulling naming a new national-security team, clearly needs time before deciding how to handle the danger.
And a major danger it is: Syria may well have the world’s largest stash of chemical weapons. As the central government crumbles, major weapons of mass destruction could end up in the hands of al Qaeda, Hezbollah or other unsavory actors.
In other words, the August red line was drawn correctly. Now someone (Turkey? America? NATO? Israel?) must obliterate or at least secure Syria’s chems — or the whole region goes boom.
Now to the Pacific, where Washington has long declined to take sides as major players there clash over rights to fish or ocean-drill for oil or natural gas. Friend or foe, America’s stance on these escalating territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas was simple: Solve it. Use diplomacy or international mediation. Don’t expect us to take sides.
Those talking points contained one exception: Our navy, the world’s largest, will guarantee freedom of navigation in the region. If shipping lanes aren’t open for all — well, that’s a red line for America.
But China Daily and other Beijing media reported last Thursday that as of Jan. 1, police in China’s southern province of Hainan will be allowed to board and seize control of foreign ships that “illegally enter” Chinese waters.
Chinese waters?
On Beijing’s maps, Hainan province included several islands that are also claimed by Vietnam. Meanwhile, at least five countries are clashing with China over sovereignty in other flashpoints across the South China Sea. And China, Japan and Taiwan similarly lock horns in the East China Sea.
Obama has long promised to turn his attention to the Pacific, now facing a host of transitions. The economic balance of power is shifting Beijing’s way; Japan faces a national election on Dec. 16 — and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is consolidating power with his family’s usual missile-firing antics.
In Beijing, meanwhile, Xi Jinping, who just assumed power as Communist Party chairman, is intent on translating his nation’s rising economic clout into military dominance. China just introduced its first aircraft carrier (and last week even tested launching a plane from it), and is upgrading its garrisons across the South China Sea.
Yes, Beijing’s current military doctrine is (asEdward Chenof Taiwan’s Institute of America sums it up), “We’re not firing the first shot but we won’t let the second shot take place.” Yet the new policy in Hainan inches ever closer to violating that policy by initiating hostilities.
That is, of course, if Obama sticks with our stated “red line,” a cornerstone of US policy in the Pacific for decades. And Pacific Asia is the region Obama says we now must cultivate (albeit with fewer aircraft carriers, which he compares to outdated “horses and bayonets.”)
Regardless of Obama’s “pivot,” America’s leadershipremains indispensible in both the Pacific and the Mideast.
So as 2013 nears, China and its neighbors wonder about America’s commitment to freedom of navigation; Syria and its neighbors wonder if chemical weapons will finally force America to intervene — and the mother of all red lines, on Iran’s nukes, is yet to be drawn.
Friend and foe alike wonder which of all these declared and undeclared ultimatums will force Obama to finally act in his second term — and which of America’s red lines will fade to gray.
Twitter: @bennyavni
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The President’s fading red lines
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The President’s fading red lines
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The President’s fading red lines
